There’s a new No. 1 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings projection after Georgia’s smash-mouth win at Kentucky removed some of the shine from the Bulldogs. Texas pulled ahead in the Associated Press Top 25 rankings after Arch Manning made a statement that the Longhorns are impervious to a Quinn Ewers injury.
Steve Sarkisian’s squad is one of six SEC teams currently headlining the top 10, while Notre Dame’s 66-point explosion at Purdue strengthened unbeaten NIU’s win over the Fighting Irish earlier this month. The Huskies have leaped Texas State as the projected Group of Five representative at the No. 12 spot, with Texas, Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC) and Kansas State (Big 12) representing the other automatic entries.
If the season ended today, the CFP selection committee would lean toward the SEC and Big Ten for their seven at-large selections. Strength of schedule trumps all, there. Unless Clemson wins out or any of the six remaining ACC unbeatens not named Miami continue winning, that’s likely going to be a one-bid league. The same goes for the Big 12, which is rooting against Notre Dame (2-1) in hopes of getting multiple playoff entries.
Projected CFP Rankings
1. Texas
SEC champion
The injury to Quinn Ewers is not moving the Longhorns off the top spot, not after what transpired when he left Saturday’s blowout win over UTSA. Second-teamer Arch Manning accounted for five touchdowns, including a 67-yard gallop that was the longest scoring run by a freshman quarterback at Texas since Vince Young’s magic nearly two decades ago. Texas is clicking right now across all three phases of the game and has the nation’s best win in its back pocket at Michigan with the league slate approaching.
2. Ohio State
Big Ten champion
One of the oft-chosen title game participants, Ohio State whizzed by its first two opponents with little fight from the opposition and then enjoyed a Week 3 bye. Transfer quarterback Will Howard seems to be settling in with his new offense and true freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith already looks like a future first-rounder. Like Georgia, Ohio State’s vet-laden defense looks the part. The Buckeyes will be tested in the coming weeks during Big Ten play, but they’re the clear-cut favorite at the top of the conference at this point.
3. Miami
ACC champion
Cam Ward continues to light it up for the Hurricanes. The transfer quarterback torched Florida in the Swamp with several elite throws and had five touchdowns in Saturday’s 62-0 drubbing of Ball State. And Miami’s personnel-rich defense should run through the rest of the ACC slate, which won’t include Clemson during the regular season. The ACC Championship likely goes through Coral Gables, which means the Hurricanes could be sitting awfully pretty with a bye.
4. Kansas State
Big 12 champion
Expect the projected winner of this conference to change by the week. After Kansas State’s impressive beatdown of Arizona, Chris Klieman’s team is now in the No. 4 spot, replacing Iowa State. Utah has questions right now surrounding Cam Rising’s hand injury and the Utes battle Oklahoma State on the road this weekend. Kansas State entertains the Cowboys in Manhattan later this month.
5. Georgia
Georgia’s 13-12 win over Kentucky, while notable since the Bulldogs played their “D” game and still managed to pull out a conference victory on the road, was not a needle-mover. This is not an overreaction. There’s potential worry offensively that this team may not have the firepower around quarterback Carson Beck that most assumed they would and the Bulldogs’ offensive line was pushed around by a team that was coming off a 25-point home loss to South Carolina. Georgia is elite, superb on defense and ranked No. 2 in the polls, but there’s work to do.
6. Ole Miss
Ole Miss impressed for the third-straight game, so much so that Wake Forest refused to play the final game in an agreement with the Rebels. That’s right, the Demon Deacons bought out their 2025 matchup with Lane Kiffin’s program in Oxford, which speaks to have far the Rebels have come as one of the nation’s new powers. Ole Miss is one of only two teams nationally that has not allowed a touchdown yet this season.
7. Oregon
Oregon isn’t leading any early-season beauty contests nationally, but stomping arch rival Oregon State in Corvallis proved a much-needed point — the Ducks are still worthy of heightened preseason merit. After failing to look the part in wins over Idaho and Boise State, Oregon’s talent showed out on the road and for the first time this fall, Dan Lanning’s team controlled the line of scrimmage with superiority.
8. Tennessee
Reminder — Kent State is an FBS team and Tennessee had 65 points by halftime of its Week 3 obliteration of the Golden Flashes. You’re not going to find a team nationally that’s slotted outside the elite tier in their own conference after the third week of the season that’s as quality across the board as the Vols. Saturday’s showdown at Oklahoma is one of Week 4’s top games.
9. Penn State
James Franklin wants his team to play with more consistency on both sides, and the good news is Kent State comes to town this weekend coming off a 71-point loss to Tennessee. That’s a disastrous team right now and the Nittany Lions, fresh off a bye, will slaughter them. The bigger test comes at the end of the month when unbeaten Illinois — and its mammoth offensive line 00 makes the trip to Happy Valley.
10. Alabama
Wisconsin was supposed to challenge Alabama at Camp Randall, but Saturday’s blowout win looked similar to every crushing victory over a ranked opponent the Crimson Tide managed under previous coach Nick Saban’s tenure — a thorough beatdown. Badgers coach Luke Fickell said as much after watching his team get owned at the line of scrimmage. Jalen Milroe is responsible for a league-leading 14 touchdowns thus far and hasn’t thrown an interception yet.
11. USC
Off the board as a title contender before the season, a 2-0 start changed the outlook for the Trojans under third-year coach Lincoln Riley. Defensively, USC looks like a different program. The Trojans are flying to the football and their size and overall mass up front is impressive. The season-opening win over LSU was unexpected and Saturday’s matchup at Michigan is another opportunity to show vast improvements that were made in the offseason. That regular-season finale against Notre Dame may decide a playoff spot.
12. Northern Illinois
If Notre Dame keeps winning, NIU’s win over the Fighting Irish will be enhanced. The upcoming trip to ACC foe NC State looks more advantageous now since the Wolfpack have questions up front and are moving to a freshman starter at quarterback. It matters little to NIU how good NC State is — the Huskies just need to win, because there won’t be a better Group of Five win all season than what they did at Notre Dame. There’s pressure moving forward on the Huskies, however. They’re marked. Unbeaten Memphis and UNLV are in the Group of Five mix here, along with Liberty and Boise State.
Projected CFP first-round games
- (12) Northern Illinois at (5) Georgia — Winner plays (4) Kansas State
- (9) Penn State at (8) Tennessee — Winner plays (1) Texas
- (11) USC at (6) Ole Miss — Winner plays (3) Miami
- (10) Alabama at (7) Oregon — Winner plays (2) Ohio State
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 4 projection features Northern Illinois at Georgia, USC at Ole Miss, Alabama at Oregon and Penn State at Tennessee. That would give the SEC three first-round home games among its five total playoff teams. The sexiest opening-round contest here is Alabama making the trek across the country to Autzen Stadium. Kalen DeBoer vs. Lanning sounds familiar, doesn’t?
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so top-seeded Texas would be playing in New Orleans.
Group of Five race wide open
The initial rankings release remains several weeks away, but keeping an eye on the Group of Five’s remaining unbeaten is a good place to start. As it stands, AP voters have only show Group of Five respect to NIU, the only program in the rankings at No. 22 this week. Memphis (77 votes) is close after dispatching winless Florida State, as is UNLV (54) following its road win at Kansas.
Boise State-UNLV will mark a playoff elimination game of sorts in late October as long as the Broncos and Runnin’ Rebels keep winning. Barry Odom’s team is open this week before playing Fresno State, Syracuse, Utah State and Oregon State prior to the Broncos. That’s a handful of 50-50 games before the one we’ve circled.
Conference USA favorite Liberty, who went unbeaten during the regular season last fall under Jamey Chadwell, has one of the easiest schedules in the country, so a 13-0 finish — and help — without a ranked win is likely the only scenario that would put the Flames in the conversation.
Moving forward on the bubble
Tennessee-Oklahoma, Utah-Oklahoma State and USC-Michigan this weekend will help to establish the hierarchy behind perceived title contenders across the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten. A loss for defending national champion Michigan would be catastrophic toward the Wolverines’ league title and playoff hopes.
No two-loss team has ever appeared in the playoff, but that will change with expansion. Several multi-loss teams within this Week 4 projection are expected from the SEC and Big Ten given the schedule challenges many of these quality squads will endure. We’re also envisioning several potential repeat matchups in the playoff, too, given the wealth of elite teams from those two conferences.
Despite holding a loss right now, Clemson and Notre Dame are well-positioned to reach the playoff by winning out. The Tigers’ only setback came to Georgia in the opener while the Fighting Irish have plenty of opportunities coming up to offset the upset loss to NIU. While subjective, the selection committee would never overlook an 11-win Notre Dame team that would have wins against Texas A&M, Louisville and USC. Speaking of the Aggies, they’re one of several SEC teams outside of the current top 10 in control of their own destiny as well, joining Oklahoma and LSU. And let’s not forget Missouri. After beating then-ranked Boston College over the weekend, the Tigers have one of the most favorable remaining schedules among playoff contenders within the SEC.
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