Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 11 of 2024 season

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This past Monday was Veteran’s Day, but honestly, every day should be Veteran’s Day. There is literally nothing we can do to properly honor all our veterans, past and present, and their families. It’s impossible to repay all those who have sacrificed so much to serve our country and protect our freedoms. And that includes the family members of our military who make their own significant sacrifices.

But every year in this column, around Veteran’s Day, I try to highlight someone in the military as my small way of honoring these heroes with a story about how the military and fantasy football interact.

And as I was perusing emails that have come into my public inbox, I came across my correspondence with Scott. I originally wrote about Scott in 2016 and I was so incredibly moved by his story. It’s one of my favorite columns I’ve ever written and honestly, one of the toughest I ever had to write as well. So, I wanted to run it again along with an update of how Scott and his family are doing now.

So, Scott and I connected, I have the update and I’ll share it at the end of this. But first, here’s the original column:

***

I don’t know, man. I honestly don’t know.

When you give advice for a living, as I do, that’s what we call “a less-than-ideal answer.”

You’re always supposed to know. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong, but you’re not supposed to say, “I don’t know.”

This is the start of my 17th year of writing a weekly “Love/Hate” column, giving advice for the upcoming week in fantasy football. And usually, the first column of the year is a fun one, full of hope and excitement for the upcoming season. But if you’ve looked at the news at any point in the past year … it has been a tough one for a lot of people and there are a lot of problems that don’t seem to have a lot of answers anytime soon. And while some problems are very public and affect a great deal of people, there are also very personal tragedies that our friends, family and neighbors have to deal with every day.

I’d like you to meet Scott.

Scott is awesome. He’s a military man, currently in his 14th year of service for our country, a master sergeant in the Air Force. Thirty-seven years old, Scott is also a family man. Married to Erica, they have a big family. Anton is 16, Xander is 12 and the twins, Layla and Andrew, are 2.

He’s also one of us.

“I started playing fantasy football my fourth year in the military,” Scott wrote to me. “As a way to get to know the guys in my new unit. I immediately became obsessed, and it wasn’t long until I was routinely called the ‘fantasy guy.’”

When I tell you Scott is one of us, I mean it. Obsessed doesn’t begin to describe him. “I was in eight leagues and every free non-family moment (in addition to the kids, my wife was pregnant with our fifth) was spent managing those teams. I loved it.”

Everything was going great for Scott until about Week 12 last year, when he learned that he and Erica’s unborn child had a serious birth defect and was given only a 50 percent chance to live.

Scott continued: “Fantasy football became my escape. … My days were spent shuttling my wife and 2-year-old twins between doctors and hospitals, running tests, and taking scans. My nights, after I comforted my wife to sleep, were spent scouring the waiver wires and proposing trades on my dimly lit phone. It was all I could do to keep myself sane.”

It was weeks of dread and searching before there was some hope. Scott and Erica heard of an experimental procedure that could potentially save their child’s life. Initial tests all went well; they were prime candidates to be accepted in a clinical trial. But as their hope was rekindled, they were dealt another devastating blow. A final test revealed another genetic disorder in the unborn child, a rare condition of which there had been only 274 known infant cases. That, combined with the first diagnosis, meant certain death.

“As you can imagine, we were crushed. We returned our crib … and started looking at caskets.”

Upon hearing the diagnosis, Scott and Erica were told they could terminate the pregnancy if they wanted to. They did not.

And so, as Scott tended to his still pregnant wife and his four other kids trying to grasp this tragedy, he expressed how important fantasy became to him. “It was my only normalcy,” he wrote. “I never let fantasy football come before guiding my family through this tragedy, of course, but honestly, it was the only non-dying-baby-related thoughts I had.”

Scott went eight-for-eight in his leagues in terms of making the playoffs and won three championships. And soon after that, his son was born. Most unborn children with this disorder don’t make it full term but young Kevin was a fighter. He made it full term and was born in March.

“After giving birth, Erica had to be rushed to immediate surgery and my son was handed over to me. Kevin lived for 43 minutes and died in my arms.”

“Erica came out of surgery successfully and my wife, my kids and I buried my son. We have shed countless tears. It has been and continues to be a painful time for myself and my family. As the months dragged on, I was looking forward to the simplicity of fantasy football to return. However, now that it is here … I couldn’t seem to care less. I am emailing you because in my opinion you are the best source when it comes to the living the ‘fantasy life.’

“I quit six of my leagues, including three I was the commissioner of. At this time, I am usually making my own rankings but this year I just grabbed the first cheat sheet I could find. I went down to just the two sentimental leagues that I have been in for years and even then, I just don’t get the happiness I always got before. So that, sir, is my question. … How do I get it back?”

I don’t know, man.

I’ve had this email for more than two weeks and I’ve thought of little else since I got it. And I don’t know.

I spoke with Scott on the phone for more than an hour.

And I don’t know.

I can’t imagine living the hell they did. I feel bad and I send condolences and well wishes and heartfelt thoughts and blah blah blah. None of it matters. Words are inadequate. I can’t pretend to fathom what Scott and his family are going through. What any family that has to go through that is dealing with.

No parent should ever outlive their child.

One of the things I love about fantasy football is that it is a distraction. A hobby. Its own self-contained little universe that exists (mostly) away from the real world, and the issues and problems that brings. Fantasy football is something that, if we are doing it right, we do for fun. A helluva lot of fun, actually.

And I am so happy to hear that, if even for a brief moment last season, it was able to provide a little relief for Scott, allowing him to be there for his family when they needed him the most.

But to answer your question, Scott, about how you get that feeling back … here’s the best answer I got.

I don’t think you do. At least not initially.

Look, the reason you don’t care about fantasy football right now is because you shouldn’t. You are grieving, and rightfully so. Like I said, I can’t begin to imagine what you are going through but I have no doubt if I ever had to go through anything close to that I would desperately look for something, anything to get my mind off it. I am by no means an expert in this (or many things, to be frank) so I strongly recommend talking with a professional therapist if you aren’t already. For you and your entire family.

But you asked for my opinion, so here it is: You need to grieve. You need to come to emotional grips with what you’ve been through and then, and only then, do things return to at least somewhat normal. When that will be, I don’t know, but when you are ready, fantasy football will still be there for you, my friend. And that’s when you’ll get that feeling back. When you’re ready. And not before.

Rest in peace, Kevin.

***

Back to present day and I honestly teared up re-reading that, even though I wrote the damn thing. I wanted to check in on Scott and his family and I am happy to report that, while I’m not sure you can ever fully recover from a tragedy like that, Scott and his family are doing as well as can be expected.

Since losing Kevin, they have continued to remember and celebrate Kevin’s legacy. They tell me so many people reached out with love and support after my initial article appeared. And they have started a charity in his honor, Boxes for Kevin, which donates remembrance boxes. Obviously, an event like this brought their family even closer together and in September of 2018, they welcomed Landry, a baby girl, to the family.

On the career front, Scott retired after 20 years of service as a SMSgt in the Air Force. As for his family, Anton is now 24 and Xander is 20, and away at college. Drew and Layla are 11 and like most 11-year-olds, both love Roblox. Drew makes videos for his YouTube channel and Layla is her dad’s favorite artist, and makes cat videos on her YouTube channel. Finally, Landry is an unruly, but cute 6-year-old who loves anything her older siblings are doing. As Scott reflected to me on his family, “My two oldest kids have grown up and moved out of the house, but I am so lucky to now be able to connect with my younger children in a way military life never allowed me to with my oldest.”

Amen, Scott. Amen.

And in fantasy football, well, while Scott never “fully” got that feeling back, he still plays and in fact, never quit. He scaled back his playing, most years only being in one or two leagues, but, as he told me when I checked in on him:

“While I never got that feeling ‘all’ the way back, I never quit fantasy football. Your column helped me realize that it would always be there, and it truly can be the perfect escape when you need it the most. And, the good news is, I am currently having my best year ever in my longest running league of folks I have met through my career called The Big 250.”

Turns out Scott has more second- and third-place finishes than anyone else in the history of the league, but has never brought home the title. He’s got a shot this year, however, so can’t tell you how hard I’m rooting for him. Sending good fantasy karma your way, Scott.

If you’d like to learn more about Kevin’s story, his mother Erica has shared Kevin’s story here in the hope it will help others who might have to face this unthinkable tragedy.

As for me, I’m looking forward to a great stretch as we head into the playoffs season and I can’t wait to sweat it out and have fun on the way to the title in my leagues, but as we embark on the home stretch, I’d like you to take a moment and think about Scott, Erica, and Kevin. Because as much as I love our little game, it is a game of passion. People do and will get very passionate about players, games, trades, and other league mates. And while I love that passion, realize that what’s important to you about fantasy football may not be what is important about fantasy football to someone else, you know?

Let’s get to it. As always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go:

Quarterbacks I Love in Week 11

Brock Purdy vs. Seattle

A decade ago, Seattle’s defense boasted the Legion of Boom. Now, the vibe of Seattle’s secondary is more … “leave ‘em some room.” Room in the slot. Room along the sidelines. Room deep. Even room in the end zone. Fine, maybe you feel “Leave ’em Some Room” isn’t as catchy as “Legion of Boom.” But trust me, opposing receivers find it extremely catch-y. Get this: Five of the last six quarterbacks to face Seattle threw for 250-plus yards and two or more touchdowns. (That includes Brock Purdy back in Week 6 in Seattle.) During that same stretch, Seattle ranks 29th in pass defense and is allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt. So, it’s no surprise that the 49ers have the second-highest implied total of Week 11. A lot of those expected points should come through the air. Purdy is QB5 this week.

Justin Herbert vs. Cincinnati

Through the first four games of the season, Justin Herbert averaged just 22.7 pass attempts per game. But hey, Jim Harbaugh had been away from the NFL for a while coaching in college. Maybe he didn’t quite know what he had in Herbert. But he knows now. In fact, the Chargers recently mic’d Harbaugh up and it turns out that he loves Justin Herbert more than maybe anyone has ever loved another human being. And those words are backed up by numbers, too. Since coming off his bye in Week 5, Herbert is averaging 30 pass attempts per game and, since Week 8, he’s QB7 in PPG thanks to three straight games posting at least 19 fantasy points. Now, Herbert gets a Bengals team that, over the past four weeks, ranks 25th in pass defense. By the way, four of the five quarterbacks to attempt 25 or more passes against the Bengals this season have thrown for multiple touchdowns against them, which is even more reason to love that Harbaugh is allowing Herbert to let it rip a little more often. I have Herbert up at QB7 this week.

Russell Wilson vs. Baltimore

While Jim Harbaugh has let Justin Herbert start throwing it around, John Harbaugh’s defense is letting absolutely anyone with a working arm throw on them. Quarterbacks facing Baltimore this season are averaging 314 passing yards per game. That includes 223 from Bo Nix, 334 from Jameis Winston, and 276 from Gardner Minshew, none of whom are currently considered to be first ballot Hall of Famers. Since Week 5, Baltimore is allowing 26.0 PPG to opposing QBs – second-most overall – and they’ve surrendered 20-plus points to quarterbacks in five of the six games over that same stretch. If I am being honest, I don’t think he’s playing particularly well. He’s made some truly clutch throws, but overall has gotten more lucky than good and the luck is going to run out here at some point. But not this week. This is all about the matchup for Russell Wilson. The Ravens’ pass defense makes him a top 10 quarterback in Week 11.

Others receiving votes: Since Week 5, Bo Nix is QB6 in PPG (20.3), meaning he at least has a shot at being a first ballot fantasy Hall of Famer. This week Nix finds a good matchup on his path to fake Canton with a Falcons team that allows the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta has also given up multiple touchdown passes in six consecutive games. … Yes, C.J. Stroud is a disappointing QB23 in PPG this season. But if Nico Collins plays this week, Stroud should return to the QB1 spot in most fantasy lineups. Remember: In Stroud’s 18 career games with Collins in the lineup, he’s averaging 18.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense comes into Monday night on a four-game spiral around the toilet bowl in which they’ve allowed 24.6 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. During that same stretch, Dallas has also allowed touchdown passes at the second-highest rate. … The Saints rank 29th in pass defense this season. Now, they face former teammate and Eminem fan Jameis Winston, who has 40-plus pass attempts in each of his two starts. Winston should get more than one shot against the Saints defense on Sunday, although it’s true that playing against a pass defense this bad may only come once in a lifetime.

Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 11

Kirk Cousins at Denver

Just three quarterbacks have scored 14 or more fantasy points against the Broncos this season, and only Lamar Jackson put up 18-plus on them. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Denver allows the third-fewest yards per completion and the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt. On top of that, the Broncos are even better at home in Denver, suffocating opposing quarterbacks like they’re out-of-shape tourists attempting to hike in high altitude. Only once this season have the Broncos allowed multiple touchdown passes at home. Then there’s this: Denver’s ability to bring pressure is especially bad for Cousins. The Broncos are third-best in pressure rate this season, while Cousins has thrown the second-most interceptions when pressured. Not much to like here for Cousins in Week 11, which is why I have him down at QB21.

Sam Darnold at Tennessee

I don’t know if the clock has struck midnight on Sam Darnold just yet, but I know that it’s getting dark a lot earlier now and Darnold has six turnovers in his last two games. Plus, Road Darnold has been a little rough all season, averaging 12.8 PPG outside of Minnesota, and this week he heads out on the road to take on a Tennessee team that has the league’s No. 1 pass defense, surrendering just 156 yards per game. This game also so happens to have the lowest Over/Under of the week at 39.5. Darnold is an easy Hate List honoree for me.

Running Backs I Love in Week 11

Joe Mixon at Dallas

In 2016/2017 Joe Mixon, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalvin Cook were all highly touted backs coming out of college and all three have made the Pro Bowl. Fast-forward to 2024 and the Cowboys have TWO of them on their roster. Impressive! Except, because it’s the 2024 Cowboys – or really the Cowboys of the last several decades – the two on their roster have managed a combined 191 rushing yards this season, while the one they don’t have – Houston’s Joe Mixon – has 655 all by himself. And the gap will only widen in this game. Every running back to see 17-plus touches against the Cowboys this season has scored 18-plus fantasy points, while Mixon has four consecutive games with at least 24 touches. The expected return of Nico Collins should open up even more run lanes for Mixon, which should be wide to begin with. Dallas has already allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns this season, as well as multiple rushing scores in three of their past four games. I like Mixon to see the end zone at least once on Monday night in Dallas. Get this: In his healthy games, Mixon is averaging a league-high 5.2 red zone rushes per game. He’s RB5 this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery vs. Jacksonville

I don’t know who would win in a fight between a lion and a jaguar, but I do know who will win in a battle between these two specific Lions and this entire team of Jaguars. The Jaguars allow the third-most fantasy PPG to running backs this season. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery each average more than 15 touches per game, while backs who see 15-plus touches against Jacksonville average 19.8 PPG. Lots to love there. But maybe best of all is that the Lions have the highest implied team total this week (30) AND are the biggest favorite (-13). That sets up for lots of points, and lots of running plays to burn clock. Gibbs is my RB10, and Montgomery is close behind at RB15. ROAR! (That’s a Lion roaring, not a Jaguar roaring. What sound does a Jaguar make? I feel like it’s kind of a depressed grunt).

Josh Jacobs at Chicago

Josh Jacobs is nursing a quad injury that left him limited in practice this week. Assuming he plays, he has a great matchup against a Bears defense that won’t limit him at all. Over the past four weeks, Chicago is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game at 175 per outing. And full disclosure, it’s not just been a bad four weeks. For the season, running backs with 17-plus touches against the Bears are averaging 100 scrimmage yards per game. So, I guess the good news for the Bears is that Caleb Williams’ play might not be the team’s biggest concern? Hooray! Jacobs is a top 15 back this week.

Others receiving votes: When the Seahawks and 49ers met back in Week 6, Kenneth Walker III had a 17% target share and eight receptions. Considering Seattle is nearly a touchdown underdog, and that San Francisco allows the sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs, Walker figures to get extra work in the passing game again this week. … The Saints allow a league-high 5.2 YPC to running backs this season and they’ve given up multiple rushing touchdowns to running backs in four of their last five games. That’s all very good news for Nick Chubb, who has 75% of Cleveland’s RB rushes since returning from his injury. … It’s not just Ja’Marr Chase and elite receivers torching Baltimore’s secondary. Running backs are getting in on the fun, too. Over the past four weeks, Baltimore is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs. That’s a big reason I’m high on Jaylen Warren this week, who has a double-digit target share in four of his past five completed games. Warren is also coming off a game in which he had season-highs in touches and snaps at the same time Najee Harris is nursing an ankle injury. There’s nice upside for Warren this week. … You could do worse than building your fantasy backfield out of former Notre Dame backs. Former Kyren Williams backup Audric Estime had 82% of Denver’s RB rushes last week, the highest rate by a Denver back all season, and Sean Payton has since said that Estime will “continue to get more reps.” As a home favorite against Atlanta’s middle of the pack run defense (14^th in the NFL over the last month), Estime has FLEX appeal this week.

Running Backs I Hate in Week 11

Najee Harris vs. Baltimore

The Ravens allow just 3.2 YPC to running backs and only one back has rushed for 50-plus against Baltimore all season. It’s unlikely Harris becomes the second to do it this week playing on an ankle-and-a-half. But I don’t want to be all negative here. Backs can put up fantasy points on the Ravens in the passing game. In fact, four of the five times a back scored 11-plus versus the Ravens this season, at least 50% of their points came as a receiver. Unfortunately, since Russell Wilson became the starter, Harris has not been used much at all in the passing game. He has five total targets in those three Wilson games, totaling a target share of just 6%. I have Harris outside my top 25 backs this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. at Philadelphia

After missing the last two games due to injury, Brian Robinson Jr. is expected to be back in uniform this week in Philadelphia. But no one will blame him if he wants to wait another week in order to ease his way back against a slightly easier run defense. Over the past four weeks, the Eagles are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs. Philadelphia has still allowed just two rushing scores to backs all season, and Week 3 was the last time a running back scored more than 12.5 fantasy points against them. Even worse for Robinson’s fantasy prospects? The only two running backs to score 13-plus against the Eagles this season had at least 40% of their points come as a receiver, and Robinson remains a limited threat in the passing game. He has just 12 targets and nine receptions all season. There’s always a chance Robinson falls into the end zone, but a big fantasy day against the top rushing defense over the last four weeks is unlikely.

Tony Pollard vs. Minnesota

The Titans have bounced back and forth between quarterbacks. They underutilized, and then traded, DeAndre Hopkins. Calvin Ridley has had a zero-catch game and a 10-catch game. At every turn, the Titans have made it nearly impossible to count on their players consistently in any way, shape or form this year in fantasy. But at least they gave us Tony Pollard. Through Week 9, he had at least 18 touches in all but one game. He was Tennessee’s clear lead back. And then last week happened. Last week, because the Titans hate us, Pollard played only three more snaps than Tyjae Spears and saw a season-low snap rate of 53%. Pollard’s 13 touches were his second fewest this season. By the way, in Pollard’s three games with fewer than 19 touches this season, he now has less than 11 fantasy points in all three. I’m nervous about Pollard’s usage going forward. Speaking of usage, the only three backs to score 12-plus fantasy points on the Vikings this season did it with at least 19 touches. Considering Spears’ usage last week, and the fact that the Titans are six-point underdogs this week, I’m not feeling the love for Pollard. In fact, I’m feeling nothing but hate. He’s outside my top 20 running backs.

Pass Catchers I Love in Week 11

George Pickens vs. Baltimore

Through the first six weeks of the season, George Pickens never hit 17 fantasy points in a single week. Since Russell Wilson became the starter, Pickens has 20-plus fantasy points in two of Wilson’s three games and, over that same three-game span, Pickens is WR6 in PPG. That’s a huge upgrade in production. I mean, you can honestly make the case that no one has been helped by a Wilson this much since Tom Hanks was stuck on an island. This week, Pickens has a great matchup against a Ravens team that has given up 23-plus fantasy points to a wide receiver in five of their past six games. Baltimore has also allowed the most touchdowns to WRs this season, while Pickens has seen 50% of Pittsburgh’s end zone targets on the season. There’s a good chance Pickens cracks the end zone at least once on Sunday. I have him as WR5 in Week 11.

Nico Collins at Dallas

The Cowboys have allowed six touchdowns to wide receivers over their past four games and four touchdowns in their last two. I guess the sun has been shining in their defensive backs’ eyes, too. Anyway, when active this season, Nico Collins has seen a whopping 70% of Houston’s end zone targets. He also has an overall target share of 29% in his four healthy games this season. This Dallas defense will help Collins and your fantasy team feel very healthy on Monday night. I have Collins coming back to action in a big way this week as a top 10 wide receiver.

Calvin Ridley vs. Minnesota

Trade deadline winners and losers usually can’t be judged until at least the end of the season, but Calvin Ridley has already won the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Since Hopkins was traded, Ridley is averaging 20.1 PPG, has a 36% target share, and has 70-plus receiving yards in all three post-Hopkins games. For the full season, Ridley leads the NFL with 35 deep targets. I mention that because the Vikings have allowed the second-most receptions per game this season on deep targets. Minnesota is also allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to WRs this season. Benched in almost every fantasy league a month ago, Ridley is a top 20 WR this week.

Brock Bowers at Miami

Just imagine when this guy gets a quarterback. Since Week 5, Brock Bowers is TE3 in PPG (17.1). Over that same period, Bowers has 50% of the Raiders’ end zone targets and an overall target share of 29%. I bring that up because Trey McBride is the only tight end to see a target share of 29% or more against the Dolphins this season … and he turned that into a 9-124-0 line for 21.4 fantasy points in Week 8. There’s no reason Bowers can’t produce something similar this week against Miami, especially in a game in which the Raiders are heavy underdogs and figure to be pass heavy. Give me Bowers as TE3 this week.

Others receiving votes: You’ll win some bar bets with this one. The player leading all qualified wide receivers in catch rate this season at 89% is… Khalil Shakir. He also has four straight games with six-plus receptions. He also has a ton of banged up pass-catching pals this week, with Keon Coleman already ruled out and Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid questionable. Shakir also has a solid matchup this week, too, against a Chiefs defense that gives up the second-most receptions per game to the slot. … In the two games that Jauan Jennings has played this season without either Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk in the lineup, he has a 36% target share. (Newsflash: Aiyuk remains out.) Jennings also ranks top six this season in yards per target and yard per route run among all wide receivers. … Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi opened his first Sunday on the job last week by clogging a toilet. This week he’ll continue trying to clog the holes in the Saints’ pass defense, which this season has mostly played like well … what Mr. Rizzi put in that toilet. On the season, New Orleans allows the fourth-most yards per game to wide receivers, so I’m heading to Club Ced on Sunday where Cedric Tillman is taking on the Saints pass defense this week. In Jameis Winston’s two starts this season, Tillman is averaging 24.2 PPG. Tillman also has seen 40% of Cleveland’s end zone targets in those games, resulting in three touchdowns. … Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-most yards per game to perimeter WRs this season and, over the past four weeks, the Bengals are surrendering the seventh-most PPG to the position. So, I like the upside of Quentin Johnston against those Bengals. … Over the past four weeks, the Bengals have also struggled against tight ends, allowing 20.5 PPG to the position. That means Will Dissly has a good matchup against the Bengals, too. Dissly, by the way, has a target share of at least 23% in three of his past four games. … In his healthy games so far this season, Dallas Goedert is getting a 22% target share. He also got two end zone targets last week, and now he gets a Commanders team that has given up three touchdowns to tight ends over their last two games.

Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 11

Jayden Reed at Chicago

The Bears have yet to allow a touchdown to the slot this season. Chicago also gives up the fourth-fewest yards per reception to the slot (9.4), and the second-fewest receptions and sixth-fewest yards per game to wide receivers overall. So, it’s a tough matchup this week for Jayden Reed. Also tough for Reed? Green Bay’s recent play calling. He hasn’t seen a target share of 20% since Week 5 and has only two games all season with a target share of 20% or more. Reed is outside my top 30 wide receivers this week.

Josh Downs at New York Jets

Welp. Josh Downs SZN is … uh … OVR. Anthony Richardson is back in, Joe Flacco is out, and that means Downs is kinda out, too. In two of three full games Downs has played with Richardson this season, he has failed to put up even six fantasy points. Downs has also caught less than 50% of his targets from Richardson this season. To make it all even worse, a Flacco-less Downs is facing a Jets defense this week that allows the second-fewest yards per game to the slot, as well as the fourth-lowest catch rate allowed to the slot. Downs is down at WR32 this week.

Amari Cooper vs. Kansas City

Since Week 6, only two wide receivers have scored 14-plus fantasy points against the Chiefs. Kansas City is especially good against perimeter receivers. The Chiefs allow the fewest yards per game to perimeter wide receivers, as well as the second-fewest receptions and third-lowest catch rate to the perimeter. Cooper, by the way, aligns on the perimeter over 80% of the time. All of which is to say: Cooper is on the very perimeter of starting lineup consideration this week, even in deeper leagues. He’s my WR38.

Jake Ferguson vs. Houston

Last week, Jake Ferguson had an aDOT of 0.0, marking his third straight game with an aDOT of less than three yards. Basically, the Cowboys are using Jake Ferguson perfectly, assuming the offense they’re running was designed before the invention of the forward pass. Anyway, Ferguson’s aDOT may creep into negative digits this week against a Texans defense that allows the fewest receptions and yards per game to tight ends. Ferguson is Week 11’s TE12.