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Pulling the country away from Russia’s sphere of influence, then, could be painful — but it’s been done before, according to Alachnovič, the economist. 

“Apart from Belarus, all other Central and Eastern European countries have already reoriented their econom[ies] from Russia to the West,” he said. “Poland reoriented. Bulgaria and the Baltic states reoriented. Moldova reoriented. So it’s possible to reorient.” 

Advocates say it’s hard to imagine a democratic Belarus as long as Putin remains in the picture. | Alexander Nemenov/AFP via Getty Images

But democracy in Belarus shouldn’t be based on alliances with either the East or the West, said Vladzimir Astapenka, the Brussels-based representative for international and European cooperation in Tsikhanouskaya’s United Transitional Cabinet in exile.

“We need to be more independent, more autonomous and more brave, to say that we would have a president that will be supported by the people of Belarus, not by the Kremlin or by Brussels or by Washington,” he said.

Seb Starcevic contributed to this report.

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