Other EU governments are being more circumspect mainly for reasons of seemliness, but several swiftly halted consideration of Syrian asylum applications. “We need to wait a few more days to see where Syria is heading,” said Nancy Faeser, interior minister of Germany, which is among those deploying a more considered tone.
Like most Syrians, Chawaf, currently a Neiman Fellow at Harvard University, oscillates between hopefulness and anxiety about Syria’s prospects. Since 2013, Chawaf has been overseeing the independent, pro-democracy Syrian radio station Rozana, which focuses on human rights reporting and has been broadcasting from studios in Paris and Gaziantep, Turkey. The outfit has around 25 correspondents based outside Syria and an intrepid two dozen inside, who’ve braved barrel bombs and jihadists.
She’s hardly slept a wink since Assad’s toppling and is planning to visit Damascus soon, and to relocate most of Rozana’s staff to Syria. But she’s under no illusions about what might lie in store for her war-tortured country, and fears Europe might be a little too quick in thinking it will soon be rid of Syrian migrants.
In fact, if things go awry, the continent could even see another refugee influx.
And there are key questions to ask. Will Syria become a more normal country and transition from the violence and oppression of the Assad regime, or is it being offered just a respite and will soon be faced with Islamist repression imposed by the main insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose origins lie with al Qaeda and the Islamic State group? Will the militants be inclusive and accept a secular, democratic state? Can Syria’s new rulers — whoever they may be — overcome the religious and ethnic fractures, worsened by the 13-year-long civil war, that divide the country between the Sunni majority, Alawites, Druze, Kurds and Christians?
If the past is anything to go by, the omens aren’t good. Look back at the outcome of the Arab Spring which saw the ousting of dictators amid high hopes. Despots replaced despots. And in Libya, a much more cohesive society than Syria, there was just a brief period of transitional peace before bullets replaced ballots.