Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Alabama beating Georgia in a classic.

The fourth-ranked Crimson Tide (3-0) welcome the second-ranked Bulldogs (3-0) to Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday for a night of firsts. With Georgia a 1- or 2-point favorite at most sports betting apps, the game will be the first since 2007 in which Alabama is a home underdog. It’ll be the first meeting between Kirby Smart and Kalen DeBoer. And Alabama will look to hand Georgia its first regular-season loss since Nov. 7, 2020.

Connelly’s predictive model gives Alabama a 3-point edge, with a 58% chance to win. The projected score is 29-26.

Connelly broke the game down extensively in his Week 5 preview column for ESPN, and he wrote this on the matchup between Alabama’s offense and Georgia’s defense:

In its first year with DeBoer and coordinator Nick Sheridan, Alabama’s offense is more all-or-nothing than ever. Despite having faced teams with an average defensive SP+ ranking of 75.7, the Tide are currently 63rd in success rate — an on-base percentage-style measure that looks at how frequently teams are gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth — and Jalen Milroe is still taking tons of sacks. But they’re also third in yards per successful play and seventh in percentage of plays gaining at least 20 yards.

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The matchup with Georgia’s defense is fascinating, as the Bulldogs force opponents to work either methodically or not at all, and they have yet to allow a single touchdown. They rank first in yards allowed per successful play but only 37th in success rate and 48th in three-and-out rate.

When Alabama has the football, it will be strength on strength. Smart is a defense-first mind. DeBoer has built his career on adaptive and explosive offenses. The chess match between the 2 will be worth the price of admission alone.

Most expect this to be one of the best games of the entire season. For Georgia specifically, it might be one of the most important games of the season.

The Bulldogs survived a scare from Kentucky on the road in Week 3, then hit an early bye week. After facing Alabama, the Dawgs will play a punishing stretch of 6 games in 7 weeks that includes Texas on the road (Oct. 19), Florida, Ole Miss on the road (Nov. 9), and Tennessee at home (Nov. 16).

While a single loss isn’t likely to knock Georgia from the College Football Playoff race, dropping the first game of the season against a ranked opponent would turn the pressure up and lead to some questions Smart hasn’t had to face for a while.

Since that loss to Florida in 2020, Georgia has won 49 of its last 51 games. Alabama has been the only team to beat Georgia during that stretch.

Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.