But that won’t have much impact on the EU, experts and industry figures argue. To start, they simply don’t believe Trump will actually repeal the signature law if elected — practically speaking, it’s adding manufacturing jobs in red states.
Even if Trump excludes the EU from the IRA’s green goodies, well, Europe isn’t drawing many benefits, anyway. And a full repeal might even help European governments struggling to match America’s subsidy splurge. Essentially, the global cleantech race will continue regardless.
“I just don’t think there’s any chance of it being completely repealed,” said Antoine Vagneur-Jones, a senior analyst at BloombergNEF specializing in the climate-friendly industries dubbed cleantech. “It’ll be very hard for [Trump] to flick a switch and suddenly make it impossible for European companies to access those different incentives.”
Of course, the IRA is a small subset of Trump’s promised economic upheaval that could do more damage abroad. The tariff-lover has toyed with a levy on each product entering the United States. Would that push China to flood Europe with more cheap products — a practice already harming EU solar manufacturers? Would Europe’s nascent green tech companies suddenly lose a massive market?
Still, green businesses insist they’re sanguine.
“Economically, it would not be a good idea to remove the IRA as it creates a lot of jobs,” said Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of Brussels’ SolarPower Europe lobby. Either way, though, “it is a worry that is not our worry.”