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According to Denis Bauchard, a former French ambassador to Jordan, the neocons were “dominant” in the cabinets of Catherine Colonna and Stéphane Séjourné, the foreign ministers who served between 2022 and 2024.
“[They] marginalized ANMO, which was dismissed as ‘the Arab street’ hostile to Israel,” said Bauchard.
According to Camille Lons, deputy head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, France’s “center of gravity has shifted towards a more pro-Israel position” in recent years.
Since the start of the latest round of hostilities, however, French policy has grown more critical of Israel, as the casualties have piled up in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people are estimated to have been killed, and as Israel has failed to rescue its hostages or strike a deal for a ceasefire.
That shift took a sharper turn after Israel invaded Lebanon in September, a former French colony, where the offensive against the Hezbollah militant group has raised fears of a larger regional war.
The assault was a setback for Macron who had been trying to de-escalate the conflict. The Israeli premier launched the offensive just as Paris thought it was on the cusp of landing a 21-day cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel.
After the recent back and forth with Netanyahu, swings are likely to continue, the officials said. “There are pressures, counter-pressures in the foreign affairs ministry and at the Élysée,” said the first former French diplomat.
Macron’s Middle East “policy can change within the same day, depending on who has the president’s ear,” he said.
