Regardless of who wins the presidential election, the coalitions supporting President Biden and Donald Trump on Nov. 5, 2024, will be significantly different from those on Nov. 3, 2020.
On May 22, Split Ticket, a self-described “group of political and election enthusiasts” who created a “website for their mapping, modeling and political forecasting,” published “Cross Tabs at a Crossroads: Six Months Out.”
Split Ticket aggregated “subgroup data from the cross tabs of 12 reputable national 2024 general election polls” and compared them with 2020 election results compiled by Pew, Catalist and A.P.
Combining data from multiple surveys allowed Split Ticket to analyze large sample sizes and reduce margins of error for key demographic groups.
The Split Ticket report identified the groups in which Trump and Biden are gaining or losing ground.
In Biden’s case, the analysis shows the president falling behind his 2020 margins among Black voters (down 23 percentage points); urban voters (down 15 points); independents, including so-called partisan leaners (down 14); Latinos (down 13); moderates (down 13); and voters ages 18 to 29 (down 12).
