Michael Huber 
The Kremlin said it has no intention of abandoning Iran as it faces a widely-expected direct attack from Israel.
Iran is under pressure as its proxies, the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, come under heavy Israeli attack in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively. The Islamic Republic is also facing the prospect of a direct attack by Israel in retaliation for a missile attack it launched against its regional rival at the start of the month.
After aiding Russia in its war against Ukraine, analysts have speculated that Iran is now looking for payback and support from Russia in its own hour of need, although the form this might take is uncertain.
When asked by CNBC how Russia perceived the status of its relationship with Iran during heightened tensions in the Middle East, and how it would balance its competing interests and alliances in the region — the Kremlin said that it intended to deepen its alliance with Tehran, come what may.
“We are developing cooperation with Iran in a variety of areas. We intend to do this further,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told CNBC Tuesday.
“This cooperation is in no way directed against third countries,” he insisted in emailed comments translated by Google. He did not directly answer whether Iran had asked Russia for support against Israel.
Russia is a close ally of Iran but has to carefully balance a number of military and economic partnerships in the wider Middle East. It’s one of the few countries to have maintained good relations with both Iran and Israel, despite their enmity, as well as with other key players in the region such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. Peskov told CNBC that Russia “maintains a dialogue with all parties involved in the conflict in the Middle East.”
Moscow and Tehran’s relationship has undoubtedly evolved since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, however. Iran has reportedly supplied Russia with one-way attack drones and, lately, short-range missiles to use against Ukraine, in exchange for military technology and hardware from Moscow.
The two nations deny any arms exchanges have taken place during the Ukrainian war but both have been heavily-sanctioned by Western nations as a result.
Analysts told CNBC that Iran has more need now than ever for Russian air defense systems and military intelligence to detect, and defend itself, from a retaliatory attack Israel has vowed to carry out in revenge for Iran’s ballistic missile attack on its territory on Oct. 1.
The retaliation is yet to materialize and we don’t know the targets or timing of an attack. Israel has vowed it will come, although it assured the U.S. it would not target Iran’s nuclear or oil production sites.
After Iran-backed Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a drone attack last week targeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home, he said Iran and its proxies, which he labeled an “axis of evil,” will pay a heavy price for assassination attempt.
“The agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today [Saturday] made a bitter mistake,” he said in the statement posted on X.
“This will not deter me and the State of Israel from continuing the war of revival against our enemies to ensure our security for generations. I say to the Iranians and their partners in the axis of evil: Anyone who harms the citizens of the State of Israel will pay a heavy price for it,” he added.
Russia and Iran’s ‘strategic’ deal
To see just how Russia could look to support Iran, all eyes are now on the BRICS summit that’s taking place in Kazan, southwestern Russia.
Originally a group formed of major developing economies Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the organization has now expanded and includes Iran, among a handful of other countries from what’s become known as the “Global South,” in contrast to the industrialized “Global North” of the West.
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It’s widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, could sign a heavily-previewed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement at the summit, signaling they’ll deepen cooperation in a number of areas, and potentially on a military level.
“Expect to see a commitment to defense cooperation (likely vaguely worded and deliberately opaque) and a script that claims Russian-Iranian alignment against a Western ‘agenda of aggression’,” Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow for Middle East security within the International Security department at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, told CNBC in emailed comments.
“It’s important to remember who the audience for these types of statements are: both a message to the U.S, and its allies about the rise of alternative alliances, and simultaneously a rallying cry to the Global South against the power hierarchy enshrined by the UN Security Council,” she noted.
Ozcelik characterized the relationship between Moscow and Tehran as being one in which both “are locked in a tactical, interest-driven alliance of convenience.”
“Both are variously manoeuvring to minimise military, political and economic losses in their respective theatres of conflict and mitigate against encroachment on their cross-border interests,” she noted.
