Week 3 in the NFL kicks off at MetLife Stadium, where the New York Jets will play host to the New England Patriots in an AFC East showdown. This is the first of two matchups these division rivals will have this season. New York snapped its 15-game losing streak against the Patriots in Week 18 to cap off the 2023 campaign and will look to begin a streak of its own as it looks toward Thursday night. 

Both of these clubs are 1-1 on the year. The Patriots opened up the year with an upset win in Cincinnati but then fell to the Seattle Seahawks in their home opener on Sunday. As for the Jets, they started the year on the road for the first two weeks and open up MetLife Stadium after notching their first win — a 24-17 victory over Tennessee — in Week 2. 

New York is favored by six in this matchup. So long as that holds, this will be the first time they’ve been favored against New England since 2011. How does this head-to-head shake out? Let’s dive in. 

How to watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 19 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
• Stream: Prime Video
• Odds: Jets -6 | O/U 38.5 (SportsLine consensus)

When the Patriots have the ball

New England has shown through the first couple of weeks that they want to be a ground-and-pound offense led by Rhamondre Stevenson. The back is averaging 23 rushes per game this season, which is 10 more than his previous career-high of 13 carries per game set in 2023. He’s found the end zone in each of the previous two games and has recorded at least 80 yards rushing. 

While the offense flowing through Stevenson will be the Patriots’ preference, they’ll need to do a better job of attacking defenses through the air. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has gone under 150 yards passing in both games this season. Hunter Henry was able to make an impact in the Week 2 loss to Seattle with 109 receiving yards on eight catches, but all other pass catchers have been a relative nonfactor. Specifically, wide receivers haven’t exactly been a part of New England’s offense thus far. Wideouts registered just three catches for 19 yards in Week 2. The team’s top receiver, DeMario Douglas, was held without a catch.  

Part of that lack of action that Patriots receivers are seeing may be due to the team’s offensive line issues. The club has struggled to keep Brissett upright this season as they have patched together their line, specifically on the left side. Chukwuma Okorafor began the year as the team’s starting left tackle but was benched early in the opener for Vederian Lowe and has since been placed on the exempt/left squad list. Then, Lowe went down with a knee injury in Week 2, which means rookie Caedan Wallace is slated to start on the left side in this matchup. So far, the Patriots are allowing a pressure rate of 44.3% this season, which is third-worst in the NFL. 

When the Jets have the ball

Of course, Aaron Rodgers is the central figure and the straw that will stir the drink of New York’s offense. He gives the Jets the best quarterback play the franchise has seen in decades, and while they’ve run a bit hot and cold through the first couple of weeks, they may be starting to find their footing. Breece Hall will be a key chess piece for Rodgers as the back has been a factor both on the ground and in the passing attack this season. In the Week 2 win over Tennessee, Hall totaled 114 yards from scrimmage and a receiving touchdown. He has been responsible for 32.2% of the team’s offense dating back to last season. With New England losing top linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pec) for the season, New York may double down on the star back. And when Hall needs a breather, rookie Braelon Allen showed in Week 2 that he can be more than capable of carrying the load. He had 56 scrimmage yards against the Titans and found the end zone twice. 

When Rodgers decides to drop back and look to the outside, Garrett Wilson will be his first read, more often than not. Wilson is among the top receivers in the NFL but has yet to truly explode in the early goings of 2024. He registered 57 yards receiving in Week 1 and then 60 in Week 2. While he could be matched up against former first-round corner Christian Gonzalez in this game against the Patriots, New England did just allow both DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to exceed 110 yards receiving on Sunday. 

Patriots vs. Jets key matchup

Arguably, the strength of the Patriots is their ability to pressure the quarterback, led by second-year defensive lineman Keion White, who already has four sacks on the season. While knocking Rodgers off of his spot would go a long way in New England pulling off the upset, they may not have a chance to. The Jets are allowing a pressure rate of 20.3% this season, which is the best in the NFL. That’s, in part, thanks to Rodgers getting the ball out in 2.4 seconds, which is the fastest in the NFL through two weeks. If that continues and the Jets offense is able to quickly move down the field to build a lead, the Patriots could be behind the eight-ball in short order. 

Prediction

New England’s issues on offense, headlined by an ineffective passing attack and deteriorating health on the offensive line, are enough to have us fade them in this spot. That’s not even mentioning the loss of starting off-ball linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley on defense. The Jets offense has the ability to get up early in this game, and, the way that the Patriots are currently built, it’s hard to imagine seeing them throw themselves back into the mix. 

Projected score: Jets 27, Patriots 17
The pick: Jets -6

SportsLine’s Emory Hunt knows the game from a player’s perspective and he has a strong read on the Patriots. He is 18-5 (+1244) on his last 23 NFL picks in games involving New England. Anyone who has followed him is way up. Visit SportsLine to see which way he’s leaning on Thursday night.